Mr. Satyendar Jain, the health minister of Delhi has said that in the next two weeks there will be 56000 Corona Positive Cases in Delhi, there has been a sense of panic among people after this statement. However, Satyendra Jain has not said anything unimaginable, the way cases are increasing in Delhi every day, anyone can estimate that figure.
There have been a number of hotspots in Delhi, Mumbai, Gujrat, and many other places. Places, where migrants have moved, are seeing a high number s of positive cases every day. However, there is no need to panic unnecessarily because the spread was already anticipated.
India saw its first case in the month of March and the spread was slow but the way crowds were gathering and social distancing was not followed, the spread rate increased, migrants’ movement just added fuel to the fire. The way migrants moved in large crowds in trains, buses, private vehicles, etc. without maintaining social distancing and proper safety, the spread was unavoidable.
Some States, like Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, in the beginning, saw no deaths due to corona and were expected to be corona free soon but the migrants carried the virus with them to these states.
The mathematical calculations of epidemiologists are based on the R factor and K factor. R factor is the number of people who can be infected from one infected person and it is currently 1.6. When this number becomes less than 1 only then we can reduce the spread rate and flatten the curve. But the good news is that most of the people are asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and mildly infected. But now since unlocking has been started, which had to happen because we can not keep lockdown for a very long period because this will result in more deaths than deaths due to COVID19, we need to be more careful. Though, people who are not infected shall be allowed to go on their work, because this will help in reviving the sinking economy but they should also take proper safety measures at the same time.
State government and central government must come together on this pandemic rather than blaming each other, then only we would be able to fight the Corona Virus effectively.
We, therefore expect that the Delhi government and central government will come together in the fight against COVID19 leaving behind the blame game, else the situation will be even worse.
Dr. MC Misra
Former Director, AIIMS